Jack ... what exactly does it means to have an "appreciation of some of their (Quebec's) key issues".

I just don't get it --- what's with Jack?

Jack Layton has been leader of the federal New Democrats (NDP)since 2003. He says that he is “delivering the kind of change that can make life better” for me and my family, and that his leadership is all about teamwork.

Now Jack Layton says he is, “ready to take the next step”, and that he is “applying for a new job: Prime Minister of Canada.”

Give me a break – is this alleged break-through really anything new? According to the Vancouver Province (April 26^th) they think so, bleating out that, “no one predicted the unprecedented national surge in popularity of Jack Layton and the NDP.

Reviewing history over the past 39 years however, what has happened with the  federal NDP under various leaders?

1972 to 1974 they supported Trudeau's minority Liberal government, and then teamed up with the Progressive Conservatives to defeat Trudeau in 1974 in a non-confidence motion. That however backfired, and in the subsequent election they went from 31 to 16 seats --- including leader David Lewis losing his own seat.

Ed Broadbent then took over leadership of the party winning 26 seats in the election that saw Joe Clark's PC's win a minority government in 1979. The NDP went on to vote non-confidence in the budget of John Crosbie. Election time again in 1980 -- Trudeau returns with a majority government --- and the NDP go on to elect 32 members this time.

Now we move forward to Canada's federal election of 1984 and again under Ed Broadbent they win 30 seats as the Conservative are back in power. During that parliament the NDP also win 3 by-elections (Newfoundland, Ontario, and the Yukon). In these by-elections they take 2 seats from the Progressive Conservatives --- and hold on to one of their own.

Next election takes place in 1988 with the PC's again winning and the NDP go on to their best ever victory heading to Ottawa with 43 MP's again under the leadership of Ed Broadbent. One year later Broadbent resigned as the federal NDP leader, setting up a battle between former BC premier Dave Barrett, and Yukon MP Audrey McLaughlin.

Dave Barrett was concerned about western alienation and said this needed to be addressed by the party, a move which had it gone ahead may have changed the course of history. Dave Barrett did not win, Audrey McLaughlin did, and soon after word was coming out of the west that “We want in” -- and leading them was Preston manning and the Reform Party.

A look at history shows that McLaughlin did elect a Quebec MP in a 1990 by-election – but that win was to be short lived as the NDP was pounded in the election of 1993, winning just 9 seats

So they went from a record high of 43 seats and high numbers in the polls --- down to just 9 seats. To be fair, the NDP provincial governments in BC and in Ontario were extremely low in the polls, which likely led to the loss of nearly all MP's in BC ... and all of their MP's in Ontario (a total of 29!).

That was the year voters sent the Progressive Conservative government a drubbing and seeing only 2 MP for them elected. Huge numbers of NDP supporters also moved over the Jean Chretien Liberals who were swept into power again in Ottawa.

The call of the West wants in was also resonating with voters in the west, leading to the grassroots populist movement, through the Reform Party, receiving votes from across the political spectrum, including who previously had supported the NDP.

Fast forward to 1997, with Alexa McDonough as leader, and the NDP reemerged electing 21 MPs – losing two however as one defected to the Liberals – and one to the PCs.

The next federal election in 2000 hurt the NDP again as voters switched to the Liberals to try and squeeze Reformers out of Parliament, and again the party numbers were reduced – this time to 13 MPs.

Exit Alexa in 2002 – enter Jack Layton. In the election that followed in 2004, Layton predicted a win of 40 seats – actual results were 19 and the Liberals went on to govern with a minority of seats in parliament

The next Federal election, held in 2006, following the fall of Paul Martin's government on a vote of non-confidence. That election saw the Steven Harper’s Conservatives win a minority government, and the NDP increase their seat count by 10, to 29 ... and then in the election of 2008 they went back in with 37 seats.

So, what is the history of the NDP over the past 39 years? They've been as low as 9 seats in parliament – and as high as 43 (a number Jack Layton has not reached).

Depending on who the electorate wanted to send a message too, the NDP have stolen votes from both the Conservatives --- or the Liberals. This time however things may be a bit different as the province of Quebec appears in play and the NDP are set to take votes from both the Bloc and the Liberals.

The New Democrats however do not ever seem to move much past their traditional voter support, with the exception of occasionally picking up protest votes -- or in this case instant new democrats who may not have seriously looked at their platform, but now seem to think Jack's charming smile can replace flawed tax and spend policy.  

Will that translate into more seats – it seems very likely that is about to happen – including the NDP probably ending up with more seats than the Bloc.

Some have said the NDP could end up with as many as 100 seats, effectively giving Michael Ignatief and the federal Liberals a drubbing. I think the NDP will indeed increase their seat count, but it will be no where near the 100 seats some are predicting.

What seems more likely to me is that they may reach the previous high of 43 seats with Ed Broadbent – maybe as high as 50 – but that's it.

So there will be no King Jack. As much as he likes to go around puffed up making pronouncements of what he'll do when elected Prime Minister, that is never going to happen --- nor is he going to become the leader of the opposition. I do think that he will however have the third highest number of seats in the next session of parliament – ahead of the Bloc.

Under Jack Layton the NDP has averaged about 16 and a half percent support over 3 elections --- while in 3 elections under Ed Broadbent they managed nearly 20% support with Canadian voters.  Clearly the NDP under the leadership of Ed Broadbent had a better showing, so what is all the fuss about with Jack??

Well it appears that it could be because of an alleged break through in Quebec – BUT why is that?  Could it be because he is soft peddling on Quebec sovereignty? Listen carefully to what Jack says in the finals days before the election.  Listen to what he says in Quebec about Quebec – and in the rest of Canada when he speaks about Quebec – the story is NOT the same.
Yesterday Jack Layton stated, "What we do believe is you start to create those winning conditions by replacing the Harper government, by respecting the people of Quebec and their hopes and their aspirations and starting to take steps in the House of Commons that show to Quebec there is an appreciation of some of their key issues."
Am I and everyone else supposed to believe Canada has not been doing this all along??  This is something every Canadian from coast to coast to coast should expect -- no matter what province we live in.  So do these words, spoken by Jack Layton, mean something different when spoken about and to Quebec.

I hope we have an answer from Jack before the election -- and I hope that the media ask for clarity on his statement as to what exactly it means to have an "appreciation of some of their (Quebec's) key issues".

I'm Alan Forseth in Kamloops, and those are the thoughts of one conservative.