New Angus Reid Poll: BC Conservative UP .... BC Liberals down

Latest BC voter preference
results -- Angus Reid (Feb '12)

The latest Angus Reid poll, out today, is just further proof of growing support for the BC Conservative Party.  This is the 3rd straight poll by Angus Reid showing increased voter support across the province. Meantime the Liberals have dropped another 3% in voter support and are below 30% according to the poll.   

Fully 27% of those who voted Liberal (small "c" conservatives) in the last election are now supporting the BC Conservative Party.  And as proof they are little more than NDP Lite -- 10% of their voters have gone back to the New Democrats

Here is the full story, and poll results, from Angus Reid:

Across British Columbia, 42 per cent of decided voters and leaners (+2 since November) will support the NDP candidate in their constituency in the next provincial election, followed by the BC Liberals with 28 per cent (-3), the BC Conservatives with 19 per cent (+1) and the BC Greens with 10 per cent (+2).

Half of decided voters in Vancouver Island (51%) and two-in-five in Metro Vancouver (42%) would vote for the NDP in the next provincial election. The BC Conservatives have reached the 20 per cent mark in both Metro Vancouver and the Interior. The BC Liberals are now second to the NDP among men (32% to 37%) and the gap with female voters is becoming wider, with the NDP ahead among women by 23 points (47% to 24%). The governing party post its best results with respondents aged 55 and over (31%, still nine points behind the NDP).

While the NDP is holding on to practically nine-in-ten of its voters in 2009 (88%), the BC Liberals can only count on the support of three-in-five of their supporters in the last provincial ballot (60%). One-in-four BC Liberal voters in 2009 (27%) are now supporting the BC Conservatives and one-in-ten (10%) are choosing the NDP.

Issues, Approval and Momentum

The economy is regarded as the most important issue facing British Columbia by 27 per cent of respondents (-2), followed by health care (21%, +4), leadership (7%), poverty (also 7%), tax relief (6%) and the environment (6%).

The approval rating for Premier and BC Liberals leader Christy Clark is 40 per cent (+1). Official Opposition and NDP leader Adrian Dix improved to 45 per cent (+5). Green Party leader Jane Sterk (25%, +4) and BC Conservative Party leader John Cummins (23%, +4) hold lower numbers, but show positive progress since November.

On the preferred premier question, Dix is the top choice for the first time (26%, +7 since November), followed by Clark (22%, -3), Cummins (8%, -1) and Sterk (3%, +1). Dix continues to be the only provincial party leader able to post a positive momentum score (+6), while Cummins (-2), Sterk (-6) and Clark (-24) had negative numbers once again.

On issues, the advantages of the BC Liberal incumbent have narrowed dramatically. Clark and Dix are virtually tied as being the best person to deal with the economy (24% to 23%) and crime (19% to 20%). Clark is ahead on federal/provincial relations (27% to 21%), but Dix is the clear leader on health care (33% to 20%) and education (30% to 21%). Sterk is regarded as the best leader to deal with the environment (26%, with Dix second at 22%).

Analysis

The last time the BC Liberals dropped below the 30 per cent mark in voting intention, Gordon Campbell was about to deliver his resignation speech in early November 2010. The governing party is now losing a quarter of its electors in 2009 to the BC Conservatives, and Clark has lost her edge on issues like crime and the economy, which her predecessor used to dominate, even at the pinnacle of his unpopularity.

The BC Conservatives are slowly getting closer to the 20 per cent mark at the provincial level, and are gaining ground in Metro Vancouver and the Interior. Still, their leader is not particularly well-known at this stage and is not carrying any significant momentum on issues.

The NDP holds the same level of support it had in the last provincial election, but Dix is now regarded as the best person to head the government in Victoria. The survey also shows that the NDP base appears satisfied with the decision to bring in a new leader. Dix’s predecessor Carole James was not able to be seen as a premier-in-waiting even after the controversy that led to Campbell’s resignation.