BC Liberals might even be saying to themselves … “Dang, we were better off with Gordon Campbell and the baggage of the HST and BC Rail scandals”

Angus Reid polling from 2009 to 2012

Anyone that says it’s the BC Conservative that will cause the Liberals to lose the next election --- think again --- they are causing this loss all on their own, and it has nothing to do with the BC Conservatives.

Just look at the numbers during the past couple of years.

When the last provincial election was held in May 2009 the BC Liberals had 46% of the votes … the NDP had 42%.  The BC Conservatives?, well they had … wait for it … 2% of the vote.

Just one year later (June 2010) an Angus Reid had the NDP polling at 47% compared to just 29% support for the Liberals.  Even adding BC Conservative supporters to their numbers would not have made up the support they had lost at that point in time. (BCCP was at 5% … adding that to the Liberal numbers would have given them 34%).  The New democrats would have won an election in a landslide if one had been called at that point in time --- and the BC Conservative Party would have had nothing to do with it.

Fast forward ahead.  If you look at the three poll samples taken between September 2010 and November 2010, you can see the NDP would have again won an election, had one been called.  The New Democrats at that time were sitting at a commanding 48%, while the BC Liberals had now dropped to just 25.3% voter support.

Again, if you add the numbers supporting the then leaderless BC Conservative Party, the BC Liberals still would have had just 32.6% of that vote … not enough to save them.

Now don’t forget --- those were the days of despair for the BC Liberals.  Gordon Campbell had tanked the party, and Christy Clark had yet to trade her radio broadcast studio for the Premiers Office.

So … between November 2010 and January 2012 what has happened??  

Some would say that the BC Liberals rejected a small ‘c’ conservative leadership candidate in Kevin Falcon, and instead elected a large “L” federal leaning liberal in Christy Clark.

What cannot be missed is the fact the BC Liberals went from the mid-30s in voter preference under Gordon Campbell … to the mid-40s following Christy Clark’s election as party leader … to a point where Christy Clark has taken the party to voter support that is less than what Gordon Campbell had before he resigned

Today the BC Liberals sit at 28% voter support.  That’s has to be a drop that rivals the likes of Bill Vander Zalm, Mike Harcourt, or Glen Clark before they were driven from office.  That’s quite an accomplishment – BUT – not one that anyone would have been proud of. 

BC Liberals might even be saying to themselves … “Dang, we were better off with Gordon Campbell and the baggage of the HST and BC Rail scandals”.

Meantime, let’s look at the BC Conservative Party over the past 2 years. 

In March of 2010 they sat at 7% voter support … in the three month period between September and November 2010 (with a membership in the neighbourhood of about 250 people) they had 7.5% voter support … and then between December 2010 and March 2011 they had the support of roughly 5 and a half percent.

Then came the election of John Cummins as party leader … a drive for policy proposals from the members … the start up of more and more constituency associations ... strong leadership of the Tactical Advisory Group … and membership that grew tenfold.

Small ‘c’ conservatives realized that the BC Liberal Party, led by a federal liberal supporter, had become a party they no longer recognized.   It had in fact become what some were calling “NDP Lite”.

The BC Liberal Party is NOT the coalition of free-enterprise voters – this is a title they cannot claim.  In actual fact, given their disarray and ever dwindling support, it shows the closer BC Liberals get to NDP policies and ideas, the more their supporters leave them.

In fact they have actually bled support to both the NDP, and the BC Conservatives.

 

Twenty five percent of people who voted for the Liberals in the 2009 election now support the BC Conservative Party … while 10% have left for the NDP.  I suspect that is likely because if the Liberals are simply going to copy the ideas and policies of the NDP, those folks thought they may as well be with the idea originators.

The BC Conservatives are NOT going to be responsible for a Liberal loss. NO instead it will be Christy Clark and her advisers, which will cause the downfall of the party.  They are doing it all on their own.

BC Conservative strength is growing because people are looking for a common sense alternative.  That is why if an election were called right now, there would at least now be enough BC Conservatives in the legislature to hold the NDP to a minority government.

BC Conservatives have not siphoned off Liberal supporters … the Liberal Party has instead dismissed and abandoned their small ‘c’ conservative backbone. 

In one year the BC Liberals have dropped from 43% voter support… to 28%
In one year the BC Conservatives have gone from just over 5.5% voter support … to 19%

What this Angus Reid Poll shows is that the momentum is going to the BC Conservatives … and is likely to continue to do so.

I’m Alan Forseth in Kamloops … with the thoughts of one conservative.