Those four things stand out to me, as having clear direction … a vision so to speak … of what government should do, and the role it should play in our society

I woke up on Sunday evening with the word “Vision” going through my mind.  Of course it was attached to something that is often on my mind, which is politics.  I believe that in BC we have suffered from a lack of elected officials, and leaders, that have had a real sense of vision on what our province can be for us, and the future it can hold for our children and grandchildren.

But first … what does the word ‘vision’ actually mean?  Here are just a few descriptions:

• a thought, concept, or object formed by the imagination
• the act or power of imagination
• mode of seeing or conceiving
• unusual discernment or foresight (a person of vision)

Each of the three main political parties in BC has a vision of how they would govern – and if you are interested you can see what they have to say by visiting their websites.  The one that has resonated for me has been the direction, and vision, presented by the BC Conservative Party.

The first four guiding principles of the BC Conservative Party say it will be guided by the following principles:

1. A belief in clearly defined public policies and programs that are affordable and effective and for which delivery is accountable to all the people of British Columbia.
2. A belief in managing the government to the highest standards of integrity and transparency and British Columbians are entitled to full knowledge of services rendered and their costs.
3. A belief in the rights and responsibilities of all British Columbians and that Governments at all levels are responsible to serve and respect all individuals and their families, including freedom from unnecessary laws and regulations and excessive government.
4. A belief that Members of the Legislative Assembly are primarily responsible to represent the interests of their Constituents.

Those four things stand out to me, as having clear direction … a vision so to speak … of what government should do, and the role it should play in our society.

What is of more interest is the fact the governing BC Liberal Party remains mired at around 25% -- showing a huge lack of support amongst BC voters

The clock is ticking down to the next BC
General Election to be held May 14th, 2013

A Globe and Mail story yesterday was headlined, “B.C. Liberals would face thrashing if election held now, poll shows”

The story was based on a new Forum Research Poll that showed the NDP at 48% … the BC Liberals at 23% … and the BC Conservatives at 19%. 

Okay, so the party I support has dropped a couple of percentage points since their last poll, however that 19% figure is in keeping with other recent polls, by other companies.  Depending on who was polled, and where, it could also simply be ‘just a hick-up’ in the numbers.

Regardless, support for the BC Conservative Party is high, and continues to remain so.

What is of more interest, to me, is the fact the governing BC Liberal Party remains mired at around 25% -- showing a huge lack of support amongst BC voters.   

Is it good enough to say, “This choice is the best, and only choice we have?”

Is it good enough to say, “This choice 

is the best, and only choice we have?”

BC Liberal MLA John Rustad recently asked the question; “If the Wildrose wins a big majority in Alberta, what impact do you think it might have in Canadian politics or on other provinces?”

It’s a good question, and at the time of writing this (Sunday afternoon), I don’t know what the results of tomorrows General Election in Alberta are, or will be.  It did however generate a number of responses.

Bill K. stated, “The West is blue… and it`s proven that Canadian political parties don`t need Quebec to get a majority any more. The decades of Eastern domination are over and political parties no longer have to suck up to Quebec.”

Followed by Bryan V. who commented, “After years of Conservative governments, the transition will be slow, could take another term in office. The first term for the B.C. Liberals was transition and organization. I never did like a 2 horse race to the wire. Not exciting”

Not wanting to be left out of the discussion I posted, “I believe it will indeed continue into BC. The results Thursday showed people not only want change -- they want choice. This is something, in all due respect, that Christy Clark has yet to realize.”

Kurt Langmann, who is the Editor in Chief of the Aldergrove Star chimed in by saying, “Interesting times ahead if projections and trends continue. A "firewall" Alberta vs an NDP B.C., a PQ Quebec, and serious economic problems in Ontario and Manitoba. Who would ever have thought that Saskatchewan and Nfld might become the nation's bright lights?”

That was just the start, as many comments followed by a number of people:

How long can Christy Clark last?

After winning the leadership of the BC Liberal Party last February, here is what new leader Christy Clark had to say:

Premier Christy Clark, during the
campaign to lead the BC Liberal Party

"I want you to be my partners in change in Victoria. I want you to be my partners in bringing open government. You can count on me to listen, you can count on me to engage, and you can count on me to make sure government really does include you. I have specific ideas on how to do these things but I also need to hear from you," she said.

"My top priority will be to put families first. In British Columbia we are blessed with families of all shapes and sizes, families as diverse as our great province. This is the foundation of our communities. This is the building block of our future."

What a difference a year makes.  Since then her government has goes from one problem to the next … she and her party have watched as more and more of the people who voted Liberal last election, have moved to BOTH the BC Conservative Party, and the NDP … saw a former Liberal cabinet Minister (John van Dogen) switch to the Conservatives… and listened, watched, and read one story after the other discussing the possibility that her party may place third in the two up-coming by-elections.

She has also watched as both her approval rating, and the fortunes of the BC Liberals, have fallen in poll after poll.

Now, from all sides of the political spectrum, people are beginning to question whether she can even survive as leader of the party before the next election is to be held in May 2013.

These are desperate days for the BC Liberals

BC Liberals about to be swept away?

Three interesting stories came out yesterday on politics in BC.  I don’t know if you have seen all three, but they were in the Huffington Post … the Now Newspaper … and the National Post.

All three contained very bad news for the governing BC Liberal Party.  While the NDP continued to maintain little more than there normal hold on their voter block, the three stories acknowledged why there has been a swing to the John Cummins led BC Conservative Party.

Here’s some of the details from the story found in the Huffington Post (Christy Clark: B.C. Premier Poised To Be Swept From Office By Adrian Dix's NDP, According To New Polls)

… Liberals did not have to worry about the Conservatives when voters last went to the polls in 2009 … Clark’s party is a coalition of British Columbia’s centre and right-wing, but its identity is becoming murkier. Clark herself comes from the federal Liberal camp, though she has been trying to prove her true-blue tendencies of late. Nevertheless, 20 per cent of B.C. Liberal voters think the party is closer to the federal Liberals, while 39 per cent think it is closer to Stephen Harper’s Conservatives, according to Forum.

Placing the B.C. Liberals on the political spectrum is in the eye of the beholder: more supporters of the B.C. Conservatives think the governing party is closer to the federal Liberals than the federal Tories, while a large majority of B.C. NDP voters identify the Christy Clark's party with the Harper Conservatives.

This is just further proof that no one, not on the right or the left, can really identify with what the BC Liberal Party is … and what it stands for.  Simply saying, 'we are not the NDP so vote for us' just does NOT cut it anymore.

BC Conservatives are the "Little Engine That Could"

The following story was published in the Cowichan News Leader Pictorial for March 5, 2012:

The leader of the British Columbia Conservatives says his party is the only one in the province committed to controlling government spending and lowering taxes.

Speaking to about 60 people at the Chemainus Theatre Feb. 28, John Cummins reacted to last week’s provincial budget and shared his views on other issues such as the negotiations between the provincial government and the British Columbia Teachers’ Federation and BC Hydro smart metres.

During his town hall meeting, Cummins also told the crowd he feels the Conservatives are poised to surpass the Liberals in the polls and can win the next provincial election.

Cummins says he was in Chemainus to help grown the constituency associations on the Island and spread the message that the BC Conservatives are alive and growing.

“Sort of like the little engine that could, we started from really nothing a year ago, and we’re now at 22 per cent of the polls,” he said. “The message is we can win the next provincial election.  "I think British Columbians are looking for change, and they’re tired of what they see in Victoria, and I think that’s why a lot of folks showed up here.”

In a poll that came out the day prior to his speech, the Conservatives stood at 22 per cent of decided voters, while the Liberals were at 24 per cent, and the NDP at 42 per cent, noted Reed Elley, president of the provincial BC Conservative Party.

“As I travel around this province, I know that what you’re reading in the polls is what people are thinking because that’s exactly the kind of message that I get,” said Cummins.

Cummins was critical of the provincial budget that was presented a week earlier.  "(The Liberals) were hoping that somehow or another, this budget was going to convince Conservatives that they should look at these Liberals as real small-c conservatives able to represent them and their issues in the legislature ... they hoped to present a budget that would be appealing to us who are fiscal conservatives. Well, it was anything but,” he said.

“The polling tells us that only 29 per cent of the people believe this budget was in their best interest, that it was a conservative budget.  And why is that?  Well, with a small-c conservative budget, you’re not going to see tax increases in these tough times, but that’s exactly what this budget does.”

The 2012 budget cancels tax cuts that had been planned for small businesses, noted Cummins.  "This is a huge disincentive to business to grow in British Columbia and to create jobs,” he said.

“One of the reasons we as a country have done well during this recent economic downturn is because our businesses taxes were low, businesses continued to invest in Canada because the corporate taxes were low, and in these tough economic times, to raise them is foolishness, and yet that’s what this Liberal government wants to do.”

Cummins says the Conservatives would do things differently by governing and managing this province based on two essential components — tax relief and spending restraint.

“Under tax relief, we already announced right at the get-go that we would eliminate the carbon tax,” he said. “We’re also committed to getting spending under control. You cannot keep accumulating debt the way we have been in this province and get away with it.”

To get spending under control, Cummins says a Conservative government would ask three questions before spending the province’s money: ‘does this program help economic growth’, ‘does this program help people who, through no fault of their own, can’t help themselves,’ and ‘does this program make B.C. a safer place to live, work and raise a family’.

“We have to address those things that really matter to people, we have to carefully manage spending in this province, we have to get the taxes under control,” said Cummins.

“We cannot continue to go back to the days of increases taxes for businesses and personal taxes; we’re paying far too much in taxes now. It’s not helpful.”

When asked how he would handle the negotiations with the British Columbia Teachers’ Federation (BCTF) differently, Cummins said both sides should bear responsibility.

“This should have been dealt with early last fall,” he said. “It should not have dragged on as long as it has, and I think part of that problem has to be placed squarely at the foot of the government.

“I think respect both ways is necessary — I think the government has to respect the teachers in a way that they haven’t, but I think the leadership of the teachers’ association could have done the job a lot better as well.”

Would you like to put that number into perspective?

Most rank and file Liberals in BC are probably wishing they didn’t have to watch, or read, news on BC politics.  It's not good; although looking at the smile pasted on Premier Christy Clark's face one would be hard pressed to see she's aware of problems in liberal-land.

CTV News at 6 ran one story after the other last night, which would lead people to wonder how much longer they can continue without running to the medicine cupboard for Extra-Extra-Strength Tylenol.

Let's see ... what kicked things off?   

Well a provincial court judge hammered the Liberal government after having to kick charges against a person who had tried to lure a young teen, for sex, through use of his computer.  This case has been in the system, since his arrest, which was two and a half years ago!

At the moment there are approximately twenty five hundred (2,500) cases in a similar position, of being thrown out for delays that have hit the 18 month mark.  

Would you like to put that number into perspective?  Plus or minus a hundred people or so, it would be the entire population of say a community the size of  Chetwynd ... or Chase ... Elkford ... Lillooet ... Logan Lake ... Pemberton ... Princeton ... Sicamous ... or Tumbler Ridge.

And what did the judge, who had to throw the case out, call the system? 

Abysmal!

Pedophiles --- drug pushers --- people accused of violent assaults.  People charged with these crimes are about to go free because the criminal system in BC is broken, and all the BC Liberal government can do is .......... study it some more.

Twitterverse lights up for Clarks not a throne speech, throne speech, on the Bill Good Show

BC Premier Christy Clark

Today Christy Clark paid a visit to the Bill Good show on CKNW 980, to outline upcoming plans for the BC Liberal Government.   

As expected the #bcpoli Twitter feed lit up with the comments of news people, and political pundits alike, commenting on what she had to say.

The following is a small snapshot of what I thought were the “Best Of” those comments – of which there were literally hundreds and hundreds:

CHILDCARE:

We need a childcare plan in BC. The cost of childcare in BC is too high for families

BC LIBERALS and the BC NDP:

Both of those parties are the same old and they need to be replaced

CALLERS ARE BC LIBERAL PLANTS:

Anyone else feel like they're listening to @billgood980's private lobbying session with @christyclarkbc as the #fauxthrone speech?

Oh BC Liberals, your plants to @CKNW call-in line are SOOOO obvious. The pat talking points kinda give you away..

Sounds like call-ins so stacked @BillGood980 has 2 pose most questions

RECENT POLLS:

Amusing to listen to the premier dance around recent polls. Earth to Christy: your party is way behind right now.

She should call the by-elections and lets see what those 2 polls look like

Premier Christy Clark says you cannot judge these things by polls that go up and down....when was the last 'up' poll?

Dear Geoff ... you asked? Well here's the answer.

Former BC Attorney General, Geoff Plant

Today former BC Liberal Attorney, General Geoff Plant wrote a column entitled, “What does John Cummins really want?”

In it, he begins by stating:

Of the two provincial by-election campaigns about to get underway in BC, the race in Chilliwack-Hope may be the more interesting.  It looks like the fight in Barry Penner’s former riding will be between a BC Liberal candidate with impeccable conservative credentials, and a BC Conservative party candidate with impeccable conservative credentials. 

Huh? 

Well, it’s true.  The BC Liberal candidate is Laurie Throness, who was chief of staff to former Conservative MP Chuck Strahl, and calls himself a “policy conservative.”  The BC Conservative Party candidate is John Martin, a professor of criminology and former Chilliwack Times columnist, whose party describes itself as “BC’s only true conservative party.”

So with two candidates trying to “out-conservative” each other, maybe this is as good a time as any to ask what it is that BC Conservative Party leader John Cummins actually hopes to achieve.

He goes on to talk about truth … policies … being an armchair quarterback … the split-vote argument and more … the regular stuff you would expect to hear from the BC Liberals.  Then he concludes by saying:

Which BC leader would you hire to cut the lawn?

Today we have a guest comment / opinion piece from my friend, BC Conservative, and former MP Jim Hart.  An analogy, if you will, of lawn cutting, and BC Politics

Want it done right?  Click HERE for the manual 

Looking at the recent political party polls in BC, one wonders exactly what it all means to the average family, guy or gal when it comes to real life in BC. So I decided I would analyze the recent polls by adding a task that most British Columbians will face in the coming weeks. As the groundhog has haphazardly told us that spring is just around the corner, I pose the question: Which BC political leader would be the best person to hire to cut your lawn? Here's what the polls suggest.

BC Green Party – Jane Sterk, is the most unlikely to accomplish the job as she would want to pass legislation to make Kentucky bluegrass or Canada Green an endangered plant life.

Instead of cutting the grass we would all be transplanting our lawns and relocating them to a government nature site or new provincial park, where grass would be protected and allowed to grow in an effective government-supervised fashion. Cutting and trimming devices would have to be registered in a government database to protect innocent plant life.

BC Liberals might even be saying to themselves … “Dang, we were better off with Gordon Campbell and the baggage of the HST and BC Rail scandals”

Angus Reid polling from 2009 to 2012

Anyone that says it’s the BC Conservative that will cause the Liberals to lose the next election --- think again --- they are causing this loss all on their own, and it has nothing to do with the BC Conservatives.

Just look at the numbers during the past couple of years.

When the last provincial election was held in May 2009 the BC Liberals had 46% of the votes … the NDP had 42%.  The BC Conservatives?, well they had … wait for it … 2% of the vote.

Just one year later (June 2010) an Angus Reid had the NDP polling at 47% compared to just 29% support for the Liberals.  Even adding BC Conservative supporters to their numbers would not have made up the support they had lost at that point in time. (BCCP was at 5% … adding that to the Liberal numbers would have given them 34%).  The New democrats would have won an election in a landslide if one had been called at that point in time --- and the BC Conservative Party would have had nothing to do with it.

Fast forward ahead.  If you look at the three poll samples taken between September 2010 and November 2010, you can see the NDP would have again won an election, had one been called.  The New Democrats at that time were sitting at a commanding 48%, while the BC Liberals had now dropped to just 25.3% voter support.

Again, if you add the numbers supporting the then leaderless BC Conservative Party, the BC Liberals still would have had just 32.6% of that vote … not enough to save them.

Now don’t forget --- those were the days of despair for the BC Liberals.  Gordon Campbell had tanked the party, and Christy Clark had yet to trade her radio broadcast studio for the Premiers Office.

So … between November 2010 and January 2012 what has happened??  

Some would say that the BC Liberals rejected a small ‘c’ conservative leadership candidate in Kevin Falcon, and instead elected a large “L” federal leaning liberal in Christy Clark.

What cannot be missed is the fact the BC Liberals went from the mid-30s in voter preference under Gordon Campbell … to the mid-40s following Christy Clark’s election as party leader … to a point where Christy Clark has taken the party to voter support that is less than what Gordon Campbell had before he resigned

THIS WEEK … BC political news

Cost savings measures for BC Ferries … a new political poll … unemployment … balancing the budget … John Martin nominated for the BC Conservatives … the garbage wars … Christy Clark trying to change political stripes … negotiations on the teachers’ contract. 

All this and more took center stage this week in BC political news.  Here’s a round-up of some of the stories in case you missed them …

BC Liberals Going Right? Riiiight.

... the remarkable thing about the steady decline of the BC Liberals is that the party remains stubbornly unable to distinguish a branding problem from a content problem ... the province's ruling party has been steadily hemorrhaging center-right votes ... to the long-dormant provincial Tories ... the response from Premier Christy Clark and her supporters has simply been to double-down on superficial right-wing marketing gimmicks while remaining blissfully oblivious to the idea that conservative voters might actually be motivated by anything more substantial ...

EDITORIAL: Latest poll confirms the obvious

… we need yet another poll to state the obvious?  From the moment former premier Gordon Campbell signed his political death warrant by foisting the hated HST upon voters mere weeks after winning an election, the BC Liberals have been bound for the afterlife now inhabited by the Social Credit, Progressive Conservative and Progressive Democratic Alliance parties … does not appear anything will change the party’s fate in time to avoid an unpleasant reckoning when voters go to the polls  …

Martin acclaimed, comes out swinging

… it didn’t take long for John Martin to be assigned duties in the BC Conservative’s shadow cabinet …the party’s candidate in the upcoming Chilliwack-Hope by-election, was named justice critic … “This Liberal government has failed British Columbians on the justice file. They have starved the justice system and now thousands of criminal prosecutions could be thrown out.”

Another day … another poll. What does it mean?

Yesterday saw the release of a new poll that shows the BC Liberals, led by Christy Clark, are in deep trouble and headed for defeat in the next provincial general election in 2013.  That is however nearly 16 months away, and a lot can change between now and then … it does however show a strong trend that has been developing over 6 consecutive polls by 3 different polling companies.

The following is a story by CKWX New Radio 1130, from this morning, which gives a brief overview of the results of that poll:

Yet another poll is showing the BC NDP could form a majority government after the next provincial election. One political analyst feels there's not much the premier can do to buck this trend.

"This isn't just one poll showing them behind the NDP; this is multiple polls showing them behind the NDP," explains Sean Holman.  While he believes any seat predictions at this point are premature, he believes the New Democrats are going to be very well-positioned going into an election.

Holman feels the Christy Clark government is having all sorts of problems associated with an  administration in its third term. "And is currently led by a leader who is new but has not been able to capitalize on that 'newness' in a way in which she probably would have liked."

"She rolled out her jobs plan late last year. That was supposed to give her some kind of traction with British Columbians -- that hasn't seemed to have worked," he adds.

The Forum Research numbers suggest 57 seats for the NDP, 20 for the Liberals, seven for the Conservatives, and Independent Vicki Huntington keeping her seat. Clark’s disapproval rating is at 46 per cent with Adrian Dix at 35.

I have been saying for some time now that the BC Liberals were NOT going to win the next election, and that the only hope to see the NDP NOT win, or at least be held to a minority, was to have the BC Conservatives on the ballot, and elected to the legislature. 

Until now, no poll had shown the BC Conservative electing ANY members, that is now beginning to change however, and I believe that numbers will continue to show the Conservatives gaining in strength, and with the likelihood of electing more members, the closer we get to the next election.

THAT HOWEVER is not based on any of the recent polls.  No ... the reason I say this is because of information that comes from a BC Stats study that was done in January 2010 entitled, “Motivations and Barriers: Exploring Voters Behaviour in British Columbia”

Here are a few things that I noted in this report:

You cannot fool all of the people all of the time

Tom Flanagan -- hired as Wildrose Party campaign manager

Here’s the headline from a story in today’s Globe and Mail; “Tom Flanagan to run Wildrose campaign in Alberta election”

In part, the story says:

"Former Conservative national campaign manager Tom Flanagan will be running the spring election campaign for Alberta’s Wildrose Party, the latest sign that the allegiances of federal Conservatives are split in the party’s home base.

His hiring shows how Wildrose continues to tap into the Conservative base in its bid to dethrone the more centrist PCs."

I reading this story, I have to look at the situation here in British Columbia and say, much the same thing happening.   

In Alberta, as this story indicates, small "c" conservatives are moving to the Wildrose Party ... while in BC small 'c' conservatives are moving to the re-invigorated BC Conservative Party led by former Reform and Conservative MP John Cummins. 

Momentum seems to be in favor of the BC Conservative Party, as poll after poll in the past year has shown the party growing in strength.  Growing to a point where the last poll conducted had the BC Conservative Party now tied at 23% with the Liberals.

As the old saying goes, "You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time."

I’m Alan Forseth in Kamloops, with the thoughts of one conservative.

BC Politics ... this week

WHAT is happening over at Christy Clark Central??  Staff are coming and going; well actually they mostly seem to be coming… and the cost of staffing and running the Premiers office is soaring. 

Premier Clark -- Is she praying for a miracle?

It seems that many rank and file members of the BC Liberals are wondering if they are on the Titanic or not ... and time will certainly tell – especially if she losses both of the upcoming by-elections, which I predict she will.

Any way … as usual it’s been another busy week on the political front, with many stories that made headlines.  Here are some of the stories that you may have missed, or might like to have a refresher on:

HST will haunt B.C. Liberals until the eve of the next election

… the terms also insisted that if the province abandoned its side of the deal — harmonization — the full amount of the transition funding would have to be paid back … such agreements are common in federal-provincial relations and Ottawa was not about to step onto the slippery slope of letting a province walk away from its obligations …

21st Century Value-Added Forest Industry

… concluded that there is an exciting opportunity for BC in the emerging bioeconomy … potential of this new economy is huge ($170 billion for bioenergy, $200 billion for bioproducts) and BC has some of the best fiber resources to feed it. The job potential of this sector is also great …

Christy Clark replaces her chief of staff

… Flagging in the polls, and with just 16 months to go before the next election, Premier Christy Clark has replaced her chief of staff… In a news release issued before Clark's official announcement Thursday, BC Conservative leader John Cummins attacked the appointment.  "Premier Clark has appointed an Albertan super-lobbyist as her chief of staff," Cummins said in a statement…

IHA too cheap to fix donated tub

… the health authority is charging people for the bathing program, it didn't even pay for the tub in the first place, rather had it donated by the Lions Club . . . surely the IHA could cough up some cash for a new tub and lift to serve that area of Kamloops … but we doubt that will happen…

People need positive leaders, positive solutions to our problems with policies to match

Yesterday, Christy Clark and the BC Liberal Party posted a new video on their YouTube channel.  A video in which she began by saying “It’s been quite a year for British Columbia …”

I couldn’t agree with her more on that!

Last year was both interesting and exciting … it was a year in which BC Liberals and the New Democrats elected new leaders … and one in which the fledgling BC Conservative Party went from 5% in the polls to 23% in the months following the election of John Cummins as leader, the development of dozens of constituency association, and the building of a strong party foundation.

But back to the video, and the words of Christy Clark.  For example these words at the 9 second mark … “We’ve come together to bring the right kind of change to our province”

Sorry Christy but the actions of your government don't match the words being spoken --- and the talk of openness and member participation – well that’s about a year late now.

The platform and ideas she is NOW asking to have contributed ‘by the people’???   They are already part of the BC Conservative Party Policy and Guiding Principles document; one developed and created by the rank and file members of the party during the past year. 

Why do I know this??

Our communities, and our province, are a better place because of your commitment

On Saturday night, across the province, there were the cheers and sounds of victory … and the quiet sounds acknowledging defeat (at least at the polls) ... as hundreds of thousands of ballots were counted.

Many great people were elected to office --- and many great people gave it their best but didn't see their hopes achieved.  I’d like to say to those who gave of their time and energy --- your commitment to serve is definitely appreciated! 

To the husbands, wives, and children of those who stood for election – thank you for sharing your spouse / father / mother with us.  For those who won, be sure to acknowledge at all times the sacrifice your family will be making while you work for the betterment of our communities.

THE REAL STORY OF YESTERDAY’S ANGUS REID POLL

BC Liberals were quick to blame their demise in the polls on John Cummins and the BC Conservative Party, as they trotted out the old “Don't Split the Vote” argument.   

It’s B.S. and they know it.  Here’s what that Angus Reid Poll also had to say:

“New Democrats are holding on to 84 per cent of the voters that supported the party in the 2009 provincial election, while the BC Liberals are only keeping two thirds of their past voters (67%) … ”

Taking that information to the next level, it means that even if you add back in the losses the BC Liberals have suffered in voter support, the NDP would still statistically win as the following shows:

John Cummins is saying and thinking the kinds of things that are resonating with British Columbians

There have been numerous media stories on the latest poll which was conducted by Angus Reid … one of those was in the Vancouver Sun.

Latest Angus-Reid Poll

This story, as has been noted by other media organizations says that, “… the BC Liberals have dropped 12 percentage points since March, when Clark was sworn into office.”

It also indicates that, “In the same seven-or-so-month period, John Cummins' BC Conservatives have gained 13 percentage points, giving the party its highest level of support in recent months.”

Good so far … but here’s the part that I disagree with:

“Benefiting from the right-wing split, the New Democratic Party now enjoys a nine-point lead over the BC Liberals, up considerably from March when Angus Reid found the Liberals to be leading by five percentage points.”

There is NO right-wing split that is benefiting the NDP.  The fact of the matter is that the NDP only gained a paltry 2%.   And why is that important?   It’s important because you should know what the margin of error in this Angus Reid poll is.  The details at the end of their report, which can be found by clicking HERE, says that the sampling variability is +/- 3.5%.

• that means that instead of being up 2%, the NDP could actually be down -1.5% from the last poll. 
• it means the BC Liberals Party could actually be DOWN a FURTHER 3.5%
• and … it means the BC Conservative Party could in fact 3.5% higher

That however is PURE SPECULATION on my part --- and really that is what polls are.   Polls are a brief snapshot for a very specific period of time … and they represent what people felt at that exact moment.

Here’s the real reason why I think this poll is important however.  There have now been 4 consecutive polls conducted by the Mustel and by Angus Reid --- ALL OF THEM have shown the BC Conservative Party climbing in support.

Put those ideas forward John ... but be prepared to fully back them up ... because that is what we are asking to see happen!

It has been said that the only political poll that counts is the one that takes place on election day – I agree.  That said however, when two polls come out the same week, showing the political party you support is increasing, well you have to like that.

I recent years the BC Conservative Party has been found lumped in with a group called “Others” -- not so any more!  In the last week or so two polls have come out that show the BC Conservatives gaining in popular support.

In the poll taken by Ipsos Reid they show the party at 10%, while the one by the Mustel Group poll had the BC Conservatives at 18%! These results have to be encouraging for John Cummins who will soon become leader of the party – they show BC voters are responding in a positive way to a message of change, government accountability, and electing a government that puts

folks ahead of the special interests.

The Ipsos Reid poll, which can be found HERE, shows that compared to the May 2009 election, voter support for the BC Liberals is down 5 points from 46% ... and the NDP are down 3 points from 42%.  (NOTE ... both of these polls have of course been conducted since the Liberals and New Democrats elected new leaders.)