Another day … another poll. What does it mean?

Yesterday saw the release of a new poll that shows the BC Liberals, led by Christy Clark, are in deep trouble and headed for defeat in the next provincial general election in 2013.  That is however nearly 16 months away, and a lot can change between now and then … it does however show a strong trend that has been developing over 6 consecutive polls by 3 different polling companies.

The following is a story by CKWX New Radio 1130, from this morning, which gives a brief overview of the results of that poll:

Yet another poll is showing the BC NDP could form a majority government after the next provincial election. One political analyst feels there's not much the premier can do to buck this trend.

"This isn't just one poll showing them behind the NDP; this is multiple polls showing them behind the NDP," explains Sean Holman.  While he believes any seat predictions at this point are premature, he believes the New Democrats are going to be very well-positioned going into an election.

Holman feels the Christy Clark government is having all sorts of problems associated with an  administration in its third term. "And is currently led by a leader who is new but has not been able to capitalize on that 'newness' in a way in which she probably would have liked."

"She rolled out her jobs plan late last year. That was supposed to give her some kind of traction with British Columbians -- that hasn't seemed to have worked," he adds.

The Forum Research numbers suggest 57 seats for the NDP, 20 for the Liberals, seven for the Conservatives, and Independent Vicki Huntington keeping her seat. Clark’s disapproval rating is at 46 per cent with Adrian Dix at 35.

I have been saying for some time now that the BC Liberals were NOT going to win the next election, and that the only hope to see the NDP NOT win, or at least be held to a minority, was to have the BC Conservatives on the ballot, and elected to the legislature. 

Until now, no poll had shown the BC Conservative electing ANY members, that is now beginning to change however, and I believe that numbers will continue to show the Conservatives gaining in strength, and with the likelihood of electing more members, the closer we get to the next election.

THAT HOWEVER is not based on any of the recent polls.  No ... the reason I say this is because of information that comes from a BC Stats study that was done in January 2010 entitled, “Motivations and Barriers: Exploring Voters Behaviour in British Columbia”

Here are a few things that I noted in this report:

• Of people who voted in the 2005 general election, 23.7% did not vote in 2009 … but the “majority of respondents reported they would likely vote in the next election (68%)
• Interest in the 2009 election was low even among those who did vote (nearly ¼ indicated they were either not interested or neutral)

A number of questions were asked, of consistent and non-consistent voters, that also had interesting results:

• 45% of committed voters said they were more likely to vote if the election race is close
• 72% of committed voters generally believed the outcome of a provincial election had a direct effect on them
• and 85% of committed voters said their vote did matter

This tells me that even while there appears to be a growing apathy amongst voters … people still believe, or want to believe, that the type of government they elect matters, and can indeed represent the values they have.

Under the heading of “What would encourage residents who didn’t vote in the 2009 Election, to vote in the next provincial election”, the top answer with 40% was … ‘changes to the political system or parties’

Since this study was done by BC Stats in January 2010, there has been a new political force on the scene … and that is the BC Conservative Party.

The BC Conservative Party is the only one that has been calling for change, and a new commitment to voters.

They have been calling for  taxpayer accountability, saying that income is received by the “in trust” and that government has a  responsibility to manage those funds in the most efficient, and accountable, manner possible.

That all individuals and organizations, including public servants at all levels, must be held equally accountable for the management of monies and the delivery of services whether it be in education, health care, electrical power, or any other service provided by government.

That government should ensure expected standards are well defined, delivery performance is monitored and tested, and those responsible for delivery are held accountable.

That there should be clearly defined public policies and programs that are affordable, and effective, and for which delivery is accountable to all the people of British Columbia.

That government should be managed to the highest standards of integrity & transparency, and that we are entitled to full knowledge of services rendered and their costs.

That government at all levels are responsible to serve and respect all individuals and their families, including freedom from unnecessary laws and regulations and excessive government.

And most importantly … a Member of the Legislative Assembly (MLA) is primarily responsible to represent the interests of his or her constituents.

In this study … a full 19% of people asked said that they had a general dislike of politics.  They were skeptical of politics because they didn’t keep their promises ... because one party was no better than the other … they didn’t like any of the candidates they had to choose from … and because they didn’t like any of the parties or their platforms (the 2 leading parties did not interest them, or they didn’t see any difference between them).

Again, that bodes well for the BC Conservatives.  

One because they didn’t have a strong presence in the last provincial election ... and two because they definitely have policies, principles, and guidelines that are clearly different for the Liberals and New Democrats.

More and more people are seeing they have a new option to choose from – and that is becoming clearer and clearer as each new poll comes out.

There is still nearly 16 months to the next provincial general election in May 2013.   BC Conservatives have a lot of work to do to, and they must continue connecting with the voters of BC, but they have already made a strong start.

I’m Alan Forseth in Kamloops, with the thoughts of one conservative.