There have been numerous media stories on the latest poll which was conducted
by Angus Reid … one
of those was in the Vancouver Sun.
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| Latest Angus-Reid Poll |
This story, as has been noted by other media organizations says that, “…
the BC Liberals have dropped 12 percentage points since March, when Clark was
sworn into office.”
It also indicates that, “In the same seven-or-so-month period, John
Cummins' BC Conservatives have gained 13 percentage points, giving the party
its highest level of support in recent months.”
Good so far … but here’s the part that I disagree with:
“Benefiting from the right-wing
split, the New Democratic Party now enjoys a nine-point lead over the BC
Liberals, up considerably from March when Angus Reid found the Liberals to be
leading by five percentage points.”
There is NO right-wing split that is benefiting the NDP. The fact of the matter is that the NDP only gained
a paltry 2%. And why is that important? It’s important because you should know what
the margin of error in this Angus Reid poll is.
The details at the end of their report, which can be found by clicking HERE,
says that the sampling variability is +/- 3.5%.
- that means that instead of being up 2%, the NDP could actually be down -1.5% from the last poll.
- it means the BC Liberals Party could actually be DOWN a FURTHER 3.5%
- and … it means the BC Conservative Party could in fact 3.5% higher
That however is PURE SPECULATION on my part --- and really that is what
polls are. Polls are a brief snapshot for a very specific
period of time … and they represent what people felt at that exact moment.
Here’s the real reason why I think this poll is important however. There have now been 4 consecutive polls
conducted by the Mustel and by Angus Reid --- ALL OF THEM have shown the BC
Conservative Party climbing in support.
