THE REAL STORY OF YESTERDAY’S ANGUS REID POLL

BC Liberals were quick to blame their demise in the polls on John Cummins and the BC Conservative Party, as they trotted out the old “Don't Split the Vote” argument.   

It’s B.S. and they know it.  Here’s what that Angus Reid Poll also had to say:

“New Democrats are holding on to 84 per cent of the voters that supported the party in the 2009 provincial election, while the BC Liberals are only keeping two thirds of their past voters (67%) … ”

Taking that information to the next level, it means that even if you add back in the losses the BC Liberals have suffered in voter support, the NDP would still statistically win as the following shows:

THIS WEEK IN BC POLITICS

Its Friday November the 4^th, and that means its time to take a look at some of the stories of BC politics that made news this week. 

This has  been a week that had bad news for the BC Liberals with the release of the latest Angus Reid Poll … smart meters and hidden debt at BC Hydro … differing opinions on the value of trade missions … and more.  Let’s start off news on the poll released yesterday by Angus Reid …

The BC Liberals: Time for a change

… it obscures what’s really going on in BC politics ... numbers reported by Angus Reid … show is that John Cummins and the Conservatives are taking votes from both the Liberals and the NDP. For every two-and-a-half votes the Conservatives get from the Liberals they get one from the NDP. Take the Conservatives out of the equation, reassign those votes from whence they came and you still get an NDP victory... the real question is why have the BC Liberals lost a third of their voters since the last election ...

Kelly McParland: Bilingualism walkout cements Liberals’ out-of-touch status

… post-Campbell Liberals are struggling … the Liberals trailing the NDP, having dropped 12 points under new premier Christy Clark ... the lost support isn’t going to the NDP, it’s going to the B.C. Conservative Party ... NDP gained just two points, while the Conservatives rose by 13, to 18 per cent … results suggest voters feel Clark is moving the Liberals too far to the left of centre, and are abandoning it for the right-wing Tories ... bad news for the Liberals, whether federal or provincial. They really need to do something if they hope to survive, much less prosper....

Clark should focus on economic fundamentals not international photo-ops

John Cummins … “Everyone knows that no actual business is conducted on these trips – just the pre-arranged announcements of existing deals. If Premier Clark wants to bring business to BC she should skip the expensive photo-ops and focus on economic fundamentals – lower taxes, reduce transportation costs and scrap the HST in the next four months.”

John Cummins is saying and thinking the kinds of things that are resonating with British Columbians

There have been numerous media stories on the latest poll which was conducted by Angus Reid … one of those was in the Vancouver Sun.

Latest Angus-Reid Poll

This story, as has been noted by other media organizations says that, “… the BC Liberals have dropped 12 percentage points since March, when Clark was sworn into office.”

It also indicates that, “In the same seven-or-so-month period, John Cummins' BC Conservatives have gained 13 percentage points, giving the party its highest level of support in recent months.”

Good so far … but here’s the part that I disagree with:

“Benefiting from the right-wing split, the New Democratic Party now enjoys a nine-point lead over the BC Liberals, up considerably from March when Angus Reid found the Liberals to be leading by five percentage points.”

There is NO right-wing split that is benefiting the NDP.  The fact of the matter is that the NDP only gained a paltry 2%.   And why is that important?   It’s important because you should know what the margin of error in this Angus Reid poll is.  The details at the end of their report, which can be found by clicking HERE, says that the sampling variability is +/- 3.5%.

• that means that instead of being up 2%, the NDP could actually be down -1.5% from the last poll. 
• it means the BC Liberals Party could actually be DOWN a FURTHER 3.5%
• and … it means the BC Conservative Party could in fact 3.5% higher

That however is PURE SPECULATION on my part --- and really that is what polls are.   Polls are a brief snapshot for a very specific period of time … and they represent what people felt at that exact moment.

Here’s the real reason why I think this poll is important however.  There have now been 4 consecutive polls conducted by the Mustel and by Angus Reid --- ALL OF THEM have shown the BC Conservative Party climbing in support.

NELSON DAILY NEWS: We need review of Community Living B.C

“We need review of Community Living B.C” is an editorial which originally ran in the Victoria Times Colonist -- today it also was printed as an editorial in the Nelson Daily News.

What does the editorial have to say?  It calls for the provincial government to have an “independent review” of Community Living BC.  Here are a few of the points they make:

“The provincial government's stubborn refusal to accept the need for an independent review of community Living B.C. is unfair to the agency, those depending on it for services, and their families….

… government's credibility on this file has been compromised. The former minister, CLBC board and managers, for example, all insisted that people were not being forced from long-time group homes against their will.  That was false….

… significant problems… lack of training … poor oversight and failures to provide homeshare operators with needed information … potentially dangerous incidents as a result, and a series of "crisis situations.  The review, done by a consultant for CLBC, found that it was impossible to determine if basic checks had been done to screen prospective homeshare providers…

 … the worrying homeshare report confirms, once again, that such a review is badly needed …"

The ONLY way this review will take place is if elected representatives of the government, including Kamloops North Thompson MLA Terry Lake and Kamloops South Thompson MLA Kevin Krueger, call on Premier Christy Clark to do so.  Kevin Krueger is my MLA, and so this morning at 10:25am I emailed this brief letter to him: 

Dear Kevin...

As a 'representative of the people who elected you' in Kamloops South Thompson (and not a representative of the government), are you prepared to stand up for those who are dependent on Community Living BC to provide them with help and support?

What is free speech --- how do we protect it --- do we need and require limits on it?

Are Canadian places of higher learning, and our public places, still home to free speech??  Some of us have wondered that for some time now, as ‘some’ who consider themselves the keepers of politically correct thought and speech, refuse to allow those with other thoughts to present their ideas.

My questioning and wondering this today, came about because of a news story I saw in the National Post.  That then led me to Google the topic of free speech in Canada.  Here are some of my results …

Universities are bastions of free speech? Not in Canada

… the louts and yobbos who prevented Ann Coulter from speaking at the University of Ottawa this week must have gladdened the heart of the university's vice-president academic and provost, François Houle, who had pre-emptively sent her a warning not to say anything too controversial lest delicate Canadian sensibilities be ruffled….

University of Waterloo apologizes to Christie Blatchford: “freedom to speak and to learn is fundamental”

… issued a statement yesterday in the wake of a Friday night incident in which Globe and Mail columnist Christie Blatchford was prevented from speaking at a scheduled event in the Humanities Theatre … protesters took exception to what they called the “racist” attitude of her book Helpless … Blatchford had been invited to campus by the university bookstore to speak about her book...

John Cummins … “We will stand up for children and not the special interests”

In the Victoria Times Colonist this morning was the headline; "Hydro paid bonuses for non-existent profit --- Auditor general's report discovered millions of dollars in deferred debts”

Wonder of wonders ... we have a batch of executives paying themselves big fat bonuses based on non-existent profits.

The practice of pushing billions in debt into the future, instead of counting it on the books each year, means Hydro shows profit where none exists and lacks a plan to pay its future bills, said Doyle.

"I haven't made that correlation yet," Energy and Mines Minister Rich Coleman said when asked if the Hydro executives deserved their bonuses based on the information in Doyle's audit.

Coleman said he's reviewing the auditor general's report. He has defended the use of deferral accounts as a way to prevent rate increases for customers by smoothing out turbulent financial times.

While the BC Liberals plan is to review the report, John Cummins BC Conservatives have come out clearly saying, 'the deferral system is being used to move money around, within the corporation, to make it appear profitable on the books.'  These deferrals have gone from $200 million ... to $2.2 billion … and by 2017 they are predicted to reach $5 billion.

 

Cummins said, “This money is going to have to be paid back. What taxpayers need to ask themselves is how? On the backs of citizens of this province, that is how.”

We keep hearing about one disaster after the other in government ministries --- agencies -- and crown corporations.  WHY? 

Smart Meters will have us paying more on our utility bills

BC Hydro to instal 1.8 million smart meter's by 2012

Why “Smart Meters”?  Well everything else aside they are, or shall I say “will be”, a revenue generating gravy train for BC Hydro. 

Here's a comment I posted on a story a couple of weeks ago:

They (BC Hydro) love to tar and paint those with health concerns as the 'tin-foil' hat crowd -- it keeps people distracted for what they are actually headed for. The ultimate goal of the smart meters is to charge us more money for power consumption and usage. We will end up with peak and low time rates ... a minimum charge plus a host of smorgasbord add-on fees.

BC Hydro has been in the news, in unfavorable stories, for month after month.  And what have the stories been about?  There have been numerous stories about smart meters and the possible health dangers, along with BIG proposed rate increases, but for me the stories that have caught my attention are the ones about the mounting and crushing debt that BC Hydro appears to be facing.

What other reason could there be for some of these recent headlines?

• Hydro deferring billions in debt, watchdog says
• Auditor general slams corporation for reporting phantom profits
• BC Hydro users on the hook for $2.2B: auditor general
• BC Hydro customers facing more rate hikes, expert warns
• Utility's bookkeeping methods will hurt development: critic

What other reason could there be for some of these recent stories?

BC Hydro Spend-Today, Pay-Tomorrow Ripped by Auditor General

… BC Hydro is using American-style accounting practices to defer billions of dollars of debt to future years … the government … is forcing BC Hydro further and further into red ink, and it will come back to haunt future rate payers …  BC Hydro is using smoke and mirrors to appear profitable, while actually pushing off costs into the future …