Their way of making change is through modification and control … social engineering … and social ownership

If the most recent poll by Angus Reid proves anything at all, it is that Christy Clark’s ‘unite the right’ mantra should finally be put to rest and buried.

It also shows that no matter what the BC Liberals decide to call themselves in the future, it will not make one bit of difference.  They will lose the next provincial election in one year from now … as sure as a dark evening sky will follow the sunshine I am enjoying here in Kamloops today.

Here in the Interior of the province, the Angus Reid poll indicates:

“… the New Democrats are first with 48 per cent, while the BC Conservatives are second with 26 per cent. Support for BC Liberals in the Interior has fallen to 18 per cent.”

Details of this survey also show that:

“The BC Liberals are only holding on to roughly half of their voters in the last provincial ballot (48%). Along with the 20 per cent of 2009 BC Liberal voters who are now saying they would vote for the Dix-led NDP, the governing party is losing 30 per cent of its past electors to the BC Conservatives.”

Are you familiar with the phrase, “The King is dead. Long live the King”?  According to Wikipedia, the phrase arose from … the law of le mort saisit le vif—that the transfer of sovereignty occurs instantaneously upon the moment of death of the previous monarch. "The King is dead" is the announcement of a monarch who has just died. "Long live the King!" refers to the heir who immediately succeeds to a throne upon the death of the preceding monarch.

In May 2013, there will be a transfer of power, and at the moment, it appears that this transfer may be going to the BC New Democrats.

BUT … do people know and realize what that transfer of power will mean – or are they simply going back to BC’s age old tradition of kicking out the guys that are in power.

Those swing voters, who are indicating they currently support the NDP, really need to read the following so they are fully aware of what a vote for the NDP will mean.

The “Preamble” in the Constitution of the New Democratic Party of British Columbia states:

The New Democratic Party believes that social, economic and political progress in Canada can only be assured by the application of democratic socialist principles to government and the administration of public affairs.

I can hear her now on election night … “I’ve been saying all along, we’d lose those by-elections”

Chilliwack - Hope Electoral map

You have to dig to find stories on the up-coming by-elections for Port Moody – Coquitlam, and Chilliwack - Hope, but today I thought I would take a look for what I could find regarding Chilliwack - Hope.   

I especially wanted to track the comments of Christy Clark as we went from the pre-writ period … through to her comments in recent days.

As you will see in the following snap-shots from stories, there seems to be a distinct pattern in her opinion of the BC Conservatives, and the role she expected they would play.

She first began by declaring the BC Conservatives to be a “spoiler”, going so far as to be “dismissive” of the party.  Then came talk of the possible “disastrous consequence” if Liberal candidates were to lose.

Premier Clark then said she was “stubbornly optimistic” as she has begun to “temper expectations” knowing that the BC Liberals will have a “tough time keeping both seats”

Here’s that snapshot of the stories I found, where these comments were made:

BC Conservatives could be 'spoiler' in coming Chilliwack by-election

Chilliwack Progress – Dec 21^st

"Governments almost always lose by-elections," BC Premier Christy Clark said … "Nevertheless, we're going to have an outstanding candidate … it's a two-way race between the BC Liberals and the NDP … the BC Conservatives can only act as a spoiler."

As Christy Clark calls two by-elections, she looks ahead to 2013

Globe & Mail – March 22^nd

Clark focused her remarks on the NDP and mentioned the Conservatives only when asked.   “We have to make sure our coalition stays together,” she said.  Ms. Clark was dismissive of the Conservatives …

BC by-elections could prove crucial to Liberals

Globe and Mail – March 26^th

Ms. Clark is stubbornly optimistic and talks of another Vancouver-Point Grey outcome. “I hope we will win both. We’re going to work really hard to win both,” she said.

Premier Christy Clark warns Chilliwack-Hope voters against voting NDP

Chilliwack Times – April 4^th

Clark went on to warn of a near-disastrous consequences if the BC Liberals do not retain power in the Chilliwack-Hope riding … and dismissed the Conservatives.

Clark back in the ’Wack to pitch job creation

Chilliwack Progress – April 4^th

“I’ve been coming to Chilliwack a lot because it’s really important that Laurie Throness get elected out here,”  … the Premier shrugged off a recent poll that suggested the small-c conservative vote has already split between the BC Liberals and the BC Conservatives.

Premier not over confident going into by-elections

News 1130 – April 10th

The premier appears to be tempering expectations for her party as advance voting begins Wednesday in a pair of provincial byelections.  The premier is letting you know the government will have a tough time keeping both seats in the legislature

So … Premier Christy Clark went from stating the by-elections would be a two way race between her governing Liberal Party and the NDP … to now stating that the government will have a tough time keeping both seats. 

BC Liberals might even be saying to themselves … “Dang, we were better off with Gordon Campbell and the baggage of the HST and BC Rail scandals”

Angus Reid polling from 2009 to 2012

Anyone that says it’s the BC Conservative that will cause the Liberals to lose the next election --- think again --- they are causing this loss all on their own, and it has nothing to do with the BC Conservatives.

Just look at the numbers during the past couple of years.

When the last provincial election was held in May 2009 the BC Liberals had 46% of the votes … the NDP had 42%.  The BC Conservatives?, well they had … wait for it … 2% of the vote.

Just one year later (June 2010) an Angus Reid had the NDP polling at 47% compared to just 29% support for the Liberals.  Even adding BC Conservative supporters to their numbers would not have made up the support they had lost at that point in time. (BCCP was at 5% … adding that to the Liberal numbers would have given them 34%).  The New democrats would have won an election in a landslide if one had been called at that point in time --- and the BC Conservative Party would have had nothing to do with it.

Fast forward ahead.  If you look at the three poll samples taken between September 2010 and November 2010, you can see the NDP would have again won an election, had one been called.  The New Democrats at that time were sitting at a commanding 48%, while the BC Liberals had now dropped to just 25.3% voter support.

Again, if you add the numbers supporting the then leaderless BC Conservative Party, the BC Liberals still would have had just 32.6% of that vote … not enough to save them.

Now don’t forget --- those were the days of despair for the BC Liberals.  Gordon Campbell had tanked the party, and Christy Clark had yet to trade her radio broadcast studio for the Premiers Office.

So … between November 2010 and January 2012 what has happened??  

Some would say that the BC Liberals rejected a small ‘c’ conservative leadership candidate in Kevin Falcon, and instead elected a large “L” federal leaning liberal in Christy Clark.

What cannot be missed is the fact the BC Liberals went from the mid-30s in voter preference under Gordon Campbell … to the mid-40s following Christy Clark’s election as party leader … to a point where Christy Clark has taken the party to voter support that is less than what Gordon Campbell had before he resigned

New Angus Reid Poll: BC Conservative UP .... BC Liberals down

Latest BC voter preference
results -- Angus Reid (Feb '12)

The latest Angus Reid poll, out today, is just further proof of growing support for the BC Conservative Party.  This is the 3rd straight poll by Angus Reid showing increased voter support across the province. Meantime the Liberals have dropped another 3% in voter support and are below 30% according to the poll.   

Fully 27% of those who voted Liberal (small "c" conservatives) in the last election are now supporting the BC Conservative Party.  And as proof they are little more than NDP Lite -- 10% of their voters have gone back to the New Democrats

Here is the full story, and poll results, from Angus Reid:

Across British Columbia, 42 per cent of decided voters and leaners (+2 since November) will support the NDP candidate in their constituency in the next provincial election, followed by the BC Liberals with 28 per cent (-3), the BC Conservatives with 19 per cent (+1) and the BC Greens with 10 per cent (+2).

THIS WEEK IN BC POLITICS — the final one for 2011

The year end with news we may now be paying
HST, on our bills and purchases, for well into 2013

As we go into the last week of the year, we have one more opportunity to review and look overt the stories that made the news this week.  Next week, on Conservative Thoughts, I will be taking a break so that’s it until 2012 … except for me to take this opportunity to wish all of you a very Merry Christmas … and a safe and Happy New Year.

Now … here are the stories that made the news this week -- each headline is linked to the full original story.

When compared with the rest of the country, this province's development pales

… politically embarrassing … the lack-lustre performance can't be excused by noting that Campbell had nasty little (or maybe not so little) recessions at the beginning and the end of his term, because so did all the other provinces that B.C. is being compared to … further such embarrassment is a key factor in why Clark decided not long after she took over from Campbell to pull the plug on the board … it's not just one province's performance that is being measured - it's all the others' as well …

Taxpayers still on the hook months after deputy fired

Jordan Bateman, B.C. director of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation, said du Toit's severance deal defies common sense. "This is another ridiculous payout from government to senior staff.  We've seen these over and over again this year."  … living allowance always troubled the federation.  "I mean, it's not like she was a pauper in the first place.  She was pulling down significant amounts of money in salary." …

BC Conservative Party leader John Cummins believes many Liberals are feeling alienated by party shift

"We're not in this to come second," Cummins said. "We are in this to win. I think this is a small 'c' conservative neck of the woods, and I think that given that we really are the only small 'c' conservative party in British Columbia, our platform will certainly resonate with the folks here."

John Cummins and the BC Conservative Party are indeed, “moving prudently” … and I too believe “he’s right”

Late last week I wrote the following words:

Oh good grief ... why oh why did I ever even consider looking at something A___  T___ had written ... it has been months since "I" let him get my blood boiling. Argghhhh!  Is the reason he hates the BC Conservatives, almost as much as the NDP, because he didn't get a personal invitation to share all of his political acumen with the party??

One person posed the question, “Interesting point - I wonder if that is the case with him?”

Another said, “A___ passed his "best-before" date years ago.  Bitter, bitter man.”

Meantime, someone with an ounce (or is that a milligram?) of smarts, that wasn’t reading him, said, “What did he write this time?”

A___ T ___ wrote the following I said; "The problem is the continuing gong show that has become the BC Conservative Party. Missed opportunities on various issues lately and their mixed messaging on the by-elections has given rise to rumors that their ascension may have stalled..."

To which I responded, “It would be nice if he'd either say nothing at all, or look at the people making the decision and give them some credit for having some political smarts”.  Well a reply was not long in showing up that brought my blood pressure down a NOTCH OR TWO:

THE REAL STORY OF YESTERDAY’S ANGUS REID POLL

BC Liberals were quick to blame their demise in the polls on John Cummins and the BC Conservative Party, as they trotted out the old “Don't Split the Vote” argument.   

It’s B.S. and they know it.  Here’s what that Angus Reid Poll also had to say:

“New Democrats are holding on to 84 per cent of the voters that supported the party in the 2009 provincial election, while the BC Liberals are only keeping two thirds of their past voters (67%) … ”

Taking that information to the next level, it means that even if you add back in the losses the BC Liberals have suffered in voter support, the NDP would still statistically win as the following shows:

John Cummins is saying and thinking the kinds of things that are resonating with British Columbians

There have been numerous media stories on the latest poll which was conducted by Angus Reid … one of those was in the Vancouver Sun.

Latest Angus-Reid Poll

This story, as has been noted by other media organizations says that, “… the BC Liberals have dropped 12 percentage points since March, when Clark was sworn into office.”

It also indicates that, “In the same seven-or-so-month period, John Cummins' BC Conservatives have gained 13 percentage points, giving the party its highest level of support in recent months.”

Good so far … but here’s the part that I disagree with:

“Benefiting from the right-wing split, the New Democratic Party now enjoys a nine-point lead over the BC Liberals, up considerably from March when Angus Reid found the Liberals to be leading by five percentage points.”

There is NO right-wing split that is benefiting the NDP.  The fact of the matter is that the NDP only gained a paltry 2%.   And why is that important?   It’s important because you should know what the margin of error in this Angus Reid poll is.  The details at the end of their report, which can be found by clicking HERE, says that the sampling variability is +/- 3.5%.

• that means that instead of being up 2%, the NDP could actually be down -1.5% from the last poll. 
• it means the BC Liberals Party could actually be DOWN a FURTHER 3.5%
• and … it means the BC Conservative Party could in fact 3.5% higher

That however is PURE SPECULATION on my part --- and really that is what polls are.   Polls are a brief snapshot for a very specific period of time … and they represent what people felt at that exact moment.

Here’s the real reason why I think this poll is important however.  There have now been 4 consecutive polls conducted by the Mustel and by Angus Reid --- ALL OF THEM have shown the BC Conservative Party climbing in support.

Adam Stirling's Comment

There have been several great editorials, polls, and news story's regarding the HST in recent days.  One is from Adam Stirling (CFAX 1070 radio), around some of the confusion people have with the question, and it follows below.

The Globe and Mail has a news story this morning as well on 'current' voter intentions (B.C. HST ‘fix’ not enough to save tax in referendum)-- and there is a letter of support from the BC Tourism Industry which has just been published in BCLocalNews.com.  

Meantime, here is the editorial comment from Adam Stirling: 

Which side will come out on top as British Columbians vote whether to keep the HST, or rather I should say whether to kill it?  The distinction between those two questions is important because the yes vs. no question still continues to be a significant problem in term of confusion according to a new survey.