Disappointed? Yes. Optimistic? ABSOLUTELY!

Last night’s by-election results were disappointing but not totally unexpected … especially in Port Moody Coquitlam where BC Conservative candidate, Christine Clarke, was up against 4 time mayor Joe Trasolini for the NDP. 

As a first time candidate however, in a party building an election campaign team from scratch, her results were commendable.

Chilliwack Hope BC Conservative
candidate John Martin

Chilliwack Hope however, was a different story, with BC Conservative candidate John Martin pulling in over a quarter of all votes cast.

That's not the real story though --- the real story is that nearly three quarters of voters cast ballots for parties OTHER THAN the BC Liberals.

The BC Liberals experienced a strong bleed of support, compared to results in the 2009 general election, both to the left and the right.

Looking at the numbers from last night, nearly eighteen percent of Liberal support went to the BC Conservative Party … while seven percent of those casting ballots for the Liberals in 2009, instead cast them from the New Democrats.

By-Election coverage in the news today

It’s Election Day in two riding's in British Columbia, as the polls opened at 8am in Port Moody Coquitlam … and Chilliwack Hope.  Here’s a quick snapshot of stories that have been in the papers this morning:

BC byelections under way: Conservatives say they're in the mix with Liberals, NDP

If Conservative candidate John Martin wins, it will bring John Cummins's party one step closer to official status in the legislature and could tempt more dissatisfied Liberal MLAs to join John van Dongen on the other side of the floor with the Tories.

A Liberal win, meantime, would provide some much-needed good news for Premier Christy Clark, who has had to face a string of public-opinion polls that suggest her party and leadership are in real trouble.

Clark braces for by-election results

Premier Christy Clark plans an election-day visit to Port Moody today, but she won't be attending victory parties there or in Chilliwack tonight.

With the surging B.C. Conservative Party making a close three-way race in Chilliwack-Hope, Clark continued to stress keeping the "free-enterprise coalition" together. And she allowed that she is aware of merger discussions going on at the constituency level.   "I will certainly be leading this free-enterprise party," Clark said

Tomorrow voters will decide between more of the same … and real change

In by-elections to be held tomorrow, voters in the riding's of Chilliwack – Hope … and Port Moody – Coquitlam … will go to the polls to election a new MLA to represent them in the legislature.  On the ballot will be the names of John Martin, and Christine Clarke, for the BC Conservatives.

John Martin, running in Chilliwack – Hope has campaigned hard on a number of important issues; including the Agricultural Land Reserve (ALR) … the Carbon Tax … the proposed incineration of Vancouver garbage in the Fraser Valley … and the (lack of) justice system. 

Here are just a few of the comments that have been made by John on these issues:

“I’m worried that under the Liberals the ALR has become a plaything for developers and well-connected special interests.  Over the last number of years a lot of good farmland has gone to other uses in Chilliwack or been excluded entirely from the Agricultural Land Reserve. And it’s not just the economic impact of losing some of the best farm land in the world, the ALR also helps to preserve the character of Chilliwack and the upper Fraser Valley.”

John Martin also responded to a recent Ministry of Agriculture announcement that $7.6 million will be provided to the BC greenhouse grower industry as a one-time rebate in 2012 of the carbon tax.

Can the Liberal brand survive?





The voters of BC do not have a history of being kind to party’s they decide no longer need to be around the BC Legislature.

In 1952, the Liberals and Conservatives were all but wiped out when a new political force in the province, Social Credit, formed a minority government.  That was the beginning of a center right coalition led by WAC Bennett, that lasted until 1972, when they were defeated at the hands of the NDP.

One term under the NDP was enough however for BC voters, and with no other option on the horizon, the Social Credit Party, now under the leadership of WAC’s son, Bill Bennett returned to power.

The final end for the BC Social Credit party came about in the 1991 election however when only 7 members were elected, relegating them to third party status behind the BC Liberals … and the NDP who once again became the government of British Columbia.

I shouldn’t actually have said that 1991 was the end of the party --- in actual fact the nails were driven into the coffin in that election, but it really truly became dead and buried in 1996 when not one member was elected.

BC was finished with the Socreds … the BC Reform Party tried and failed to make inroads … and the BC Liberal Party led by Gordon Campbell became the new home of the centre right.

In this overview, I have neglected to so far mention the trials and tribulations of the Socred, the Liberals, and the NDP under a variety of leaders who ended up resigning from scandals … or being pushed out.  The names of Bill Vander Zalm, Glenn Clark, Mike Harcourt, Gordon Wilson, and others are likely still fresh in our minds however.

The recent departure of Gordon Campbell, leader of the BC Liberal Party is just the latest in this string of names … driven out controversy over BC Rail, the HST, and plummeting polling results not just for him, but the BC Liberal Party itself.

Early last year, members of the BC Liberal Party went into a leadership race that provided them with two clear options; Kevin Falcon… a fiscal and social conservative candidate … or a more left leaning, cut from the mold of the federal Liberal Party, Christy Clark.

Interesting isn’t, how the human mind thinks? Or … venom and hate the order of the day.

This is me, the big scarey BC Conservative. Hmmm ... maybe Petrosa
and Pierre are right; women, children, and those in need beware.

Those who get the Kamloops Daily News will have seen a Letter to the Editor that I submitted, and which ran in Saturday’s paper.  It was actually an edited version of a blog post I did.  The letter went as follows:

After winning the leadership of the B.C. Liberal Party Christy Clark stated: "I want you to be my partners in change in Victoria. I want you to be my partners in bringing open government. You can count on me to listen, you can count on me to engage, and you can count on me to make sure government really does include you. I have specific ideas on how to do these things but I also need to hear from you," she said.

"My top priority will be to put families first. In British Columbia we are blessed with families of all shapes and sizes, families as diverse as our great province. This is the foundation of our communities. This is the building block of our future."

What a difference a little over a year makes.

Since then her government has gone from one crisis to another … she has watched as people who last election voted Liberal, have moved to both the B.C. Conservative Party, and the NDP … saw a former Liberal cabinet Minister (John van Dongen) switch to the Conservatives… and she’s seen one story after the other saying the Liberals may actually come third in the upcoming byelections.

She has also watched as both her approval rating and the fortunes of the B.C. Liberals have fallen in poll after poll.

Now, from all sides of the political spectrum, people are beginning to question if she can even survive as leader of the party before the next general election to be held in May 2013.

When Clark announced she planned to seek the leadership of the B.C. Liberal Party, these are the opening and closing words which she spoke: “I am running for leader of the B.C. Liberals – and to lead us to an election victory over the NDP – to bring new leadership to our province. That means more than simply a new premier, it means a new way of doing business for our government.”

 “… with me you can count on a leader who is direct, responsive, and committed to bringing positive, prosperous change to B.C.”

Again, what a difference a little over a year can make; which is why people are asking, “How long can Christy Clark last?”

It didn’t take long for the responses to roll in one of which stated:

I can hear her now on election night … “I’ve been saying all along, we’d lose those by-elections”

Chilliwack - Hope Electoral map

You have to dig to find stories on the up-coming by-elections for Port Moody – Coquitlam, and Chilliwack - Hope, but today I thought I would take a look for what I could find regarding Chilliwack - Hope.   

I especially wanted to track the comments of Christy Clark as we went from the pre-writ period … through to her comments in recent days.

As you will see in the following snap-shots from stories, there seems to be a distinct pattern in her opinion of the BC Conservatives, and the role she expected they would play.

She first began by declaring the BC Conservatives to be a “spoiler”, going so far as to be “dismissive” of the party.  Then came talk of the possible “disastrous consequence” if Liberal candidates were to lose.

Premier Clark then said she was “stubbornly optimistic” as she has begun to “temper expectations” knowing that the BC Liberals will have a “tough time keeping both seats”

Here’s that snapshot of the stories I found, where these comments were made:

BC Conservatives could be 'spoiler' in coming Chilliwack by-election

Chilliwack Progress – Dec 21^st

"Governments almost always lose by-elections," BC Premier Christy Clark said … "Nevertheless, we're going to have an outstanding candidate … it's a two-way race between the BC Liberals and the NDP … the BC Conservatives can only act as a spoiler."

As Christy Clark calls two by-elections, she looks ahead to 2013

Globe & Mail – March 22^nd

Clark focused her remarks on the NDP and mentioned the Conservatives only when asked.   “We have to make sure our coalition stays together,” she said.  Ms. Clark was dismissive of the Conservatives …

BC by-elections could prove crucial to Liberals

Globe and Mail – March 26^th

Ms. Clark is stubbornly optimistic and talks of another Vancouver-Point Grey outcome. “I hope we will win both. We’re going to work really hard to win both,” she said.

Premier Christy Clark warns Chilliwack-Hope voters against voting NDP

Chilliwack Times – April 4^th

Clark went on to warn of a near-disastrous consequences if the BC Liberals do not retain power in the Chilliwack-Hope riding … and dismissed the Conservatives.

Clark back in the ’Wack to pitch job creation

Chilliwack Progress – April 4^th

“I’ve been coming to Chilliwack a lot because it’s really important that Laurie Throness get elected out here,”  … the Premier shrugged off a recent poll that suggested the small-c conservative vote has already split between the BC Liberals and the BC Conservatives.

Premier not over confident going into by-elections

News 1130 – April 10th

The premier appears to be tempering expectations for her party as advance voting begins Wednesday in a pair of provincial byelections.  The premier is letting you know the government will have a tough time keeping both seats in the legislature

So … Premier Christy Clark went from stating the by-elections would be a two way race between her governing Liberal Party and the NDP … to now stating that the government will have a tough time keeping both seats. 

How long can Christy Clark last?

After winning the leadership of the BC Liberal Party last February, here is what new leader Christy Clark had to say:

Premier Christy Clark, during the
campaign to lead the BC Liberal Party

"I want you to be my partners in change in Victoria. I want you to be my partners in bringing open government. You can count on me to listen, you can count on me to engage, and you can count on me to make sure government really does include you. I have specific ideas on how to do these things but I also need to hear from you," she said.

"My top priority will be to put families first. In British Columbia we are blessed with families of all shapes and sizes, families as diverse as our great province. This is the foundation of our communities. This is the building block of our future."

What a difference a year makes.  Since then her government has goes from one problem to the next … she and her party have watched as more and more of the people who voted Liberal last election, have moved to BOTH the BC Conservative Party, and the NDP … saw a former Liberal cabinet Minister (John van Dogen) switch to the Conservatives… and listened, watched, and read one story after the other discussing the possibility that her party may place third in the two up-coming by-elections.

She has also watched as both her approval rating, and the fortunes of the BC Liberals, have fallen in poll after poll.

Now, from all sides of the political spectrum, people are beginning to question whether she can even survive as leader of the party before the next election is to be held in May 2013.

It's absolutely insulting, to the intelligence and integrity of BC voters, to suggest that we have to support the Liberals

The political landscape of BC continues to be the focus of those in the mainstream media, following the defection Liberal Abbotsford South MLA John van Dongen, to the BC Conservative Party.

It also has, I believe, given even greater cause for the BC Liberal Party to wonder on their future with the voters of BC – and their chances in the up-coming by-elections – especially Chilliwack Hope.

For weeks, prior to the writ being dropped, the BC Liberal Party was pouring funding announcements into the riding, spending a lot of advertising dollars, and also putting up campaign signs (in direct contravention of a municipal by-law in Chilliwack).

The campaign was on, and their team was in place.  John van Dongen’s decision to join John Cummin’s BC Conservative Party has dramatically changed that however, and it has caused them to add a new face to the team. 

This morning, Keith Baldrey of Global News posted the following on Twitter:
“Long-time MP Chuck Strahl to chair BC Lib campaign in Chilliwack-Hope byelection. Definite boost to the party, but will it be enuf?”

I replied:

“@keithbaldrey if waited till now 2 become part of campaign,just shows very shaky chances of win”

Here’s another comment that was posted earlier today on Twitter, from Dean Skoreyko‏@bcbluecon, to which I also posted a response:

“Strahl, Day, Hill and Manning support of Christy Clark helped her become 2nd last in Canadian premier ratings”

Alan Forseth‏@AlanForseth

“hope she keeps that up, just wallpapering rotting walls & foundation of #bclibs”

Can the BC Liberal Party save itself from a wipe-out in the next BC general election?